Iceland and the EU
Speech by Hjörtur J. Guðmundsson at the Nordisk Folkerigsdag,
the Faroe House in Copenhagen July 23, 2005:
http://eunews.blogspot.com
Thank you very much for the opportunity to address this excellent
conference. I’m very greatful for that. Besides apologizing for
speaking to you today in English rather than in one of the Scandinavian
languages I would like to begin by stressing the fact that Iceland is
far from being on its way into the European Union. Of course some
Pro-EU people are likely to claim otherwise, especially in Norway. But
the fact nevertheless remains. There is actually nothing at present
which indicates that Iceland will ever join the EU and in fact it has
probably never been as unlikely as today. And then I mean apart from
the current crisis the EU is facing at the moment. There are simply no
compelling reasons for Iceland to join the Union. But at the same time
we have a number of strong reasons to remain outside it, not the least
the fact we are doing very well that way.
We don’t have a Pro-EU government in Iceland and it’s furthermore very
unlikely that such a government will take power in Iceland in the years
to come. We don’t have a Pro-EU majority in the Icelandic parliament
either nor support for EU membership among the people. Only one
political party in Iceland is in favour of joining the EU, the Social
Democratic Alliance. But the party has, however, never actually put
membership on its agenda. The party has about 1/3 of the votes but
couldn’t form a government on its own since there are no precedents of
minority governments in Iceland during the republican time. Other
parties are more or less opposed to the idea of joining the EU,
including the Progressive Party which forms the present coalition
government with the Independence Party.
The Progressive Party is sometimes considered by some people outside
Iceland to be a Pro-EU party. However, that is nevertheless not
correct. The chairman of the party and the current Prime Minister of
Iceland, Halldór Ásgrímsson, is indeed pro-EU. But
the vice-chairman is against EU membership and the same goes for vast
majority of the members of the party. This became very clear at the
party’s biannual general meeting earlier this year where those in
favour of joining the EU in the party made several attempts to have
membership put on the party’s platform but where forced to withdraw
every time.
In Iceland we are rather content with our relationship with the EU. We
have the EEA agreement which is in full force and although it has been
debated ever since it became active and still is most Icelanders are
quite positive about it according to polls. Most people believe the
agreement has served our interests quite well although it of course has
its faults. We are obliged to adopt a certain number of regulations,
directives, etc. from the EU through the agreement which have to do
with the Union’s common market. Instead we have full access to the
common market and possibilities to influence those regulations very
much. However, the number of regulations we have been taking on from
the EU is in fact fairly low according to a new report from the EFTA
office in Brussels or only about 6,5% of the total EU legislation. In
addition we don’t have to participate for instance in the Common
Fisheries Policy or the Common Agriculture Policy.
The fisheries
But why has Iceland decided not to join the EU and furthermore never
even applied for membership? It’s a common belief that the fisheries is
the the sole major reason why Iceland has chosen to remain outside the
EU. But it’s far from being that simple. As one of the most important
trades in Iceland the fisheries issue alone is enough to rule out
Icelandic EU membership and as such it has been quite bulky in the
discussions about the relationship of Iceland and the EU.
The main conclusion of a report published in September last year by a
joint committee from the Icelandic Ministries of Fisheries and Foreign
Affairs and groups of interests in the field of the fisheries was that
EU membership would not be in the interests of the Icelandic fisheries.
Something we have of course known for a long time. The report indicates
that Icelandic authorities have always emphasised certain main issues
when discussing the matters of the fisheries on international scene.The
basic issue has always been that Iceland must hold full authority over
Icelandic waters and other natural resources. The report says
furthermore:
”Various parts of the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) contravene the
rights and interests of the Icelandic people. [...] The public opinion
in Iceland is that we cannot become memberstate of the EU unless our
special interests, especially concerning the fisheries and the fish
resources of the Icelandic waters, will be respected and ensured in all
future with a permanent arrangement. The Icelandic people will not put
the authority of their natural resources and livelihood in the hands of
others, not at present nor in the future, and believe the EU’s Common
Fisheries Policy, which has been shaped with other nations and other
circumstances in mind, cannot suit Iceland and the Icelandic people.
The Icelandic people have an independent authority over the Icelandic
waters and their resources and will continue to do so.”
It is safe to say that this is the opinion of Icelanders in general.
Even prominent people in the Icelandic Pro-EU movement have publicly
claimed on many occasions that EU membership is out of the question
unless we will hold full authority over our waters. But this is of
course something the EU will never accept since it would probably mean
the end of the CFP like Ben Bradshaw, Minister in the British
government, said in a visit to Iceland last summer. His argument was
that if Iceland would get such special treatment other memberstates of
the EU, which have interests when it comes to the fisheries, would
claim the same – understandably. Mr. Bradshaw also said he understood
very well why Iceland had decided to remain outside the EU with regards
to the fisheries since the CFP would not serve the interests of Iceland.
The economy and the independence
But as I mentioned earlier the fisheries, although a very big issue, is
far from being the only major reason Iceland has chosen to remain
outside the EU. For one thing we Icelanders are very fond of our
independence and believe it has been the key factor in changing Iceland
from being one of the poorest countries in Europe in the beginning of
the 20th century to be one of the richest countries in the world today.
Of course keeping our authority over our waters is a part of our
independence. But we also want to keep our authority over other issues
which would be tranferred to Brussels more or less if we would join the
EU. For example our economy.
I think I can say that Icelanders are in generel very much opposed to
too much bureaucracy, centralization and overregulation but this is all
certain characteristics of the EU. Like I said in the beginning of the
speech Iceland is doing very well outside the Union. The decision to
remain outside has not caused any economic problems. On the contrary,
Iceland has sustained impressive GDP growth ever since 1995, with the
sole exception of the year 2002. Last year the growth was 5% and is
forecast to be around 5% or more over the next years. Unemployment is
also very low in Iceland, about 2,1%, and we are usually always among
the ten highest in international researches on how well countries are
doing.
Polls in Iceland have then repeatedly indicated that the Icelandic
people don’t want to adopt the euro instead of the Icelandic
króna. Major reason for that is probably the fact that the
Icelandic economy differs fundamentally from the economies of the EU
memberstates. Our economy experiences economic swings which bear no
relation to the swings experienced in the EU. This is mainly because in
Iceland the economy is generally attributable to variations in the
export value of seafood products which does not apply to the EU.
It would of course be highly unfavourable for Iceland if the currency
used in the country was a subject to exchange-rate trends that did not
reflect Icelandic conditions but conditions in nations where entirely
different economic factors prevail. For example, euro interest rates
would never be raised in order to prevent inflation in Iceland at the
expense of economic growth in Germany. The same applies to the
application of taxation and interest rates, which are being centrally
controlled in the eurozone.
The right to conclude independent international trade agreements, like
free trade agreements and fisheries agreements with other nations
concerning shared fishing stocks, is also something we are not willing
to relinquish. Today Iceland has concluded many favourable free trade
agreements with other nations around the world, mainly through EFTA.
And more are scheduled for example with China and possibly India. This
would of course not be possible if we were members of the EU. One of
the biggest reasons we are able to do this is of course our
independence.
Yet another thing is the simple fact that we would probably not have
much influence within the EU if we became members where the powers of
each memberstate are increasingly becoming associated with their
population. After all Iceland has only about 300 thousand people and
would therefore never have much influence compared to most of the other
memberstates. This is of course also related to the question of
democracy, but I guess we can all agree that the EU is not the most
democratic institution in the world. I believe the Icelandic people
have far more influence on their surrounding and their lifes in general
at present than if we would join the EU.
Finally, if the proposed EU Constitution will become active it will
certainly not make the Union more attractive to Icelanders than it is
today. It is quite obvious that the EU Constitution would change the
nature of the EU fundamentally and among other things make it more
centralized. Even the Pro-EU movement in Iceland admits this.
The Pro-EU propaganda
Now, what do the supporters of an EU membership in Iceland say to try
to convince us that we should join the EU. Well, first it should be
mentioned that the Pro-EU propaganda in Iceland has changed
fundamentally in the last few years. During most of the 90s the basic
Pro-EU accentuation was that we in Iceland were missing some happy
train to the promised land or something by remaining outside the EU.
That everything was so much better within the EU and we were missing
out on that.
But few years back the happy trip to ”paradise” ceased to be happy and
became a constraint. Now EU membership is not something we should
pursue but something we’re going to be forced to do whether we like it
or not which is of course total nonesense. And the reason for this is,
at least to my opinion, that it is always becoming more and more
difficult to convince the Icelandic people that the EU is some kind of
a paradise, especially when it comes to both political and economic
issues.
The central issue of the Icelandic Pro-EU movement today is trying to
convince us that EU membership is the only option Iceland has. That
there is simply no alternative than complete isolation. That we are too
small to stay outside the Union. At the same they accuse us on the
Eurosceptic side for lacking ambition for Iceland when we point out
that we would probably have very little influence within the EU. Then
they add that Icelandic EU membership is not a question of whether but
when. Just like they have the ability to see into the future and
declare such indeterminate things which no one of course can say
anything certain about. The purpose of this is of course to try to
convince people that there is pointless to fight back.
The Icelandic Pro-EU movement also claims on a regular basis that
Norway is going to join the EU. They have actually done this for
decades now and as we all know Norway is still not a member of the
Union. On the other hand we know that the Pro-EU movement in Norway in
a reverse manner argues regularly that Iceland is on its way into the
EU and has done for years too. In both cases this is quite untrue. The
reason for this reference to Norway is that our interests and Norways
are connected through the EEA agreement.
The Pro-EU movement says that if Norway would join the EU we would have
no choice but to join it too since that would spell the end of the EEA
agreement. Others say that this is nonesense, the agreement would
probably simply be adjusted to a different situation in that event.
After all the agreement was in the making when it was assumed by many,
not the least in Brussels, that Norway would join the EU in 1994.
Finally the Pro-EU movement in Iceland thinks we can enter membership
negotiations with the EU only to see how acceptable agreement we can
get and then just cancel the whole thing if we don’t like what is one
the table. However, this is of course out of the question from the EU’s
point of view. This has among others been confirmed by Denis MacShane,
the former Minister of State for Europe in the British government, in a
visit to Iceland last summer. He simply said that such negotiations
were out of the question if it was not really the intention of the
Icelandic people to join the Union and that the negotiations would not
certainly result in membership. Of course the EU will not waste
menpower, time and money in negotiations with Iceland, or any other
country, if there is not a real intention to join the Union.
Conclusion
So in conclusion there is in fact nothing which indicates that Iceland
is on its way to join the European Union, at least not in the coming
years. We simply have no intention or compelling reasons to do so as I
said in the beginning of this speech. Also both domestic and
international studies have repeatedly confirmed that we are simply
doing much better outside the Union than most of its memberstates – and
in some cases even all of them.
Thank you very much.
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